2016.05.24

習近平主席をめぐる異例の事態

　５月１９日、東洋経済オンラインに「習近平が危ない！中国で異例の事態が続出　絶対権力者の地位を脅かす3つの兆候とは？」を寄稿した。

　毛沢東に次ぐ絶対的権力者になりつつあると見られている習近平国家主席の地位にふさわしくない出来事が起こっている。
　来年秋に第１９回中国共産党大会が開催されることとも関係があるのだろう。

　寄稿文の要点は次の通り。

○現政権の重要な柱である反腐敗運動はかなり成果を上げたかに見えていたが、まだまだ深刻な問題が残っている。習近平自身がそのことを認め、警報を鳴らしている。中国における腐敗は、「浜の真砂は尽きるとも世に盗人の 種は尽くまじ」に近い状況らしい。

○国民の多数の信頼をつなぎとめるには、大衆重視路線を進め格差の解消が必要だが、文化革命否定の基本方針は堅持しなければならないという矛盾した状況にある。

○「習近平同志に党と国家の指導的職務を辞するよう求める」と題する公開状が一時的にせよ、中国の一部メディアに流れた。習近平を支持しない勢力があることを示す象徴的な出来事だった。

　中国の力を過小評価できないのはもちろんだ。中国の統治メカニズムは基本的には有効に機能している。
　しかし、中国の政治においては常に緊張関係があるし、不安定化することもありうる。そうなれば外交への影響も不可避だ。習近平政権が危機的状態に陥っているとみなすのは速断にすぎるが、今後の中国の政治状況をフォローする上で考慮に入れておくべきことである。

2016.05.23

（短評）北朝鮮のベテラン外交官の国葬

　北朝鮮の外交官であり、朝鮮労働党の重要な地位である書記にもなった姜錫柱氏が５月２０日死去した。同氏が核問題をめぐる米国との交渉に携わったことはよく知られている。その後も北朝鮮の外交の重鎮であり、小泉首相の訪朝の際も金正日総書記のかたわらに同席していた。オバマ政権の発足とともに北朝鮮関係担当大使となったボズワース氏が就任早々訪朝した際、とくに姜錫柱との面会を求めたこともあった。

　姜錫柱氏の葬儀は「国葬」として行われるという。これが事実なら驚きだ。北朝鮮でもほかの国でも、外交官であった人が「国葬」の待遇を受けることは、最近はないのではないか。
　北朝鮮の考えは推測に過ぎないが、外交重視、それも米国との交渉重視の姿勢を示す狙いがあるのではないか。

2016.05.21

President Obama’s visit to Hiroshima

One reason why the nuclear weapons are not abolished is they are needed in the actual international politics as deterrent, but the real reason is that people do not have true understanding about the inhumanity of nuclear weapons.
Weapons are inhumane by nature but some of them cause extraordinary consequences so that movements to prohibit these weapons were begun from the end of 19th century. The United Nations further developed and elaborated the concept of inhumanity, and created treaties to ban use of inhumane weapons.
As a result, ‘excessive’ and ‘indiscriminate’ are identified as factors to characterize the inhumane nature of weapons.
The nuclear weapons injure and kill a vast amount of civilians, in addition to the problems that they are excessively injurious and cause indiscriminate effects.
However there is no treaty to ban the use of nuclear weapons whereas other inhumane weapons such as poison gas and anti-personnel mines are banned by treaties.
Nuclear disarmament and prohibition of nuclear weapons are now under debate in the framework of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the United Nations, but reaching agreement on the use of nuclear weapons seems as difficult as their entire abolition. Disagreement between the nuclear weapon states and non nuclear weapon states is so deep.
Under such circumstances, international movements to establish the concept of inhumanity were launched from a few years ago. It was preceded by the advisory opinion on the Legality of the Threat or Use of Nuclear Weapons by the International Court of Justice which was handed down in 1996. It said that the use of nuclear weapons was in principle against the international humanitarian law, but this was just an “advisory opinion“ that had no legally binding force on states.
A newly launched movement aims to create political consensus by countries on the inhumanity of nuclear weapons.
Even in this movement, however, consensus on the inhumanity of nuclear weapons is not achieved yet because the deterrence theory has a strong influence there too.
Japanese government is recommending world leaders to visit Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and directly feel how inhumane the nuclear weapons and their consequences are. Visit to the cities enables people to understand inhumanity of nuclear weapons through direct “experience”, while global movements described above is to achieve the goal by words. The G7 meeting held at Hiroshima this April was greatly effective to let them feel the inhumanity of nuclear weapons.
What is particularly important here was that feeling the inhumanity of nuclear weapons by direct experience was so different from understanding by words. United States Secretary State John Kerry frankly confessed that he was surprised.
I was the Ambassador of Delegation of Japan to the Conference on Disarmament, and had chances to visit with Western people the memorial museums in Hiroshima and in Nagasaki. I remember so well that they were astonished by what they had seen and felt there because it was quite different from what they had known before.
Actually people’s understanding of the inhumanity of nuclear weapons is not deep enough even though they think they know it intellectually. If they really understand they may become more serious about nuclear disarmament. If they understand the cruelty of nuclear weapons not only by words but also by experience, they can be different. Therefore, it is absolutely necessary for us to correctly understand the real situation of nuclear bombing.
President Obama decided to visit Hiroshima overcoming lots of negative opinions against the visit. Some people were worried that the president would be required to apologize. But that should not happen obviously. President Obama’s decision is of great importance beyond description for nuclear disarmament, and for the US-Japan relationship, and even for world peace.
Hoping the US president will visit Nagasaki too in the near future, I wish the presidential visit to Hiroshima will be completed without difficulty.
(長江隆氏の協力によりTHEPAGEへの寄稿文を英訳）